February 2021 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

Abidjan, 26 February 2021 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2020/21 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2019/20 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume XLVII – Cocoa Year 2020/21 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2021.

This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s first forecasts for the 2020/21 cocoa year as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country. The main features of the global market are illustrated in colour charts, maps, and Sankey diagrams. In addition, the Bulletin includes comments on the crop and demand developments in the leading countries, a review of price movements on international markets for cocoa beans during the October-December quarter of 2020 and the evolution of trade flow data estimated for major cocoa exporting and importing countries during the 2019/20 season.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

 Cocoa year 

(Oct-Sept)

 2019/20 2020/21 Year-on-year change
Previous estimates a/ Revised estimates Forecasts
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World gross production 4 697 4 726 4 843 + 117 + 2.5%
World grindings 4 631 4 669 4 693 + 24 + 0.5%
Surplus/deficit   b/ + 19 + 10 + 102
End-of-season stocks 1 741 1 730 1 832 + 102 – 5.9%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 37.6% 37.1% 39.0%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVI – No. 4 – Cocoa year 2019/20
b/   Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products, and chocolate, by country and by region, published in the Annex of this edition, covers annual data from 2017/18 to 2019/20 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2019 to July-September 2020. Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade by country and by region, for the period 2011/12 to 2019/20 are presented for reference.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org