Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, 29 February 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2023/24 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2022/23 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume L – Cocoa year 2023/24 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2024.

Significant declines in production are expected from the top producing countries as they are envisaged to feel the detrimental effect of unfavourable weather conditions and diseases. Moreover, old trees in these countries are producing with lower yields. The low availability of cocoa beans has led to significant increases in cocoa prices. With costs of raw materials increasing, this is likely to affect the operations of processors.

Compared to the 2022/23 season, global cocoa supply is anticipated to decline by almost 11% to 4.449 million tonnes. Global cocoa demand is projected to decrease by almost 5% to 4.779 million tonnes.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

Cocoa year  (Oct-Sept)	2022/23		2023/24	Year-on-year change
	Previous estimates a/	Revised estimates	Forecasts
	(thousand tonnes)				(Per cent)
World gross production	4 953	4 996	4 449	– 547	– 10.9%
World grindings	5 002	5 020	4 779	– 241	– 4.8%
Surplus/deficit   b/	– 99	– 74	– 374
End-of-season stocks	1 744	1 769	1 395	– 374	– 21.1%
Stocks/Grindings ratio	34.9%	35.1%	29.2%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLIX – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2022/23
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for 1% loss in weight) minus grindings.
Totals may differ due to rounding.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2020/21 to 2022/23 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2022 to July-September 2023. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org