November 2022 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics
Abidjan, 30 November 2022 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised estimates for the 2020/21 and 2021/22 cocoa years of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans, summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 4 – Volume XLVIII – Cocoa Year 2021/22 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of November 2022.
For this issue, several revisions have been made to the 2021/22 cocoa balance sheet. On the supply side, the production estimate has been adjusted downwards by 67,000 tonnes to 4.823 million tonnes, almost 1% lower than the estimate of 4.890 million tonnes presented in the previous Bulletin. A lower yield resulting from less conducive weather conditions and diseases in most of the major producing countries underlined the downward revisions.
On the demand side, compared to 5.071 million tonnes in the previous Bulletin, grindings have been adjusted higher by almost 10,000 tonnes to 5.081 million tonnes based on an increased use of beans as reflected in the trade of cocoa products. Notwithstanding the challenges of the global macroeconomy, global cocoa demand held up in 2021/22– from an estimate of 4.981 million tonnes in 2020/21 to 5.081 million tonnes in 2021/22, which reflects a 2% year-on-year increase.
Summary of forecasts and revised estimates
| Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) |
2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | Year-on-year change | ||
| Revised estimates |
Previous estimates a/ |
Revised estimates |
|||
| (thousand tonnes) | (Per cent) | ||||
| World gross production | 5 242 | 4 890 | 4 823 | – 419 | – 8.0% |
| World grindings | 4 981 | 5 071 | 5 081 | + 100 | + 2.0% |
| Surplus/deficit b/ | + 209 | – 230 | – 306 | ||
| End-of-season stocks | 1 928 | 1 683 | 1 622 | – 306 | – 15.9% |
| Stocks/Grindings ratio | 38.7% | 33.2% | 31.9% | ||
Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVIII – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2021/2022
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for 1% loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding.
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2018/19 to 2020/21 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2020 to April-June 2022. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.
Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the ICCO e-Shop: https://www.icco.org/categorie-produit/qbcs/ or by email: statistics.section@icco.org
