May 2024 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics
Abidjan, 31 May 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the 2023/24 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2022/23 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 2 – Volume L – Cocoa year 2023/24 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of May 2024.
As the 2023/24 season progresses, it is certain the season will end in a higher deficit than previously expected. Much lower cocoa supplies from the leading producing countries have further extended the supply deficit. Global production and grindings are projected to decline by -11.7% to 4.461 million tonnes and by -4.3% to 4.855 million tonnes.
Though at the start of the season, there was uncertainty regarding cocoa demand due to increasing cocoa prices, current available data reveal that cocoa grinding activities have so far been unrelenting in importing countries despite the record cocoa price rallies. However, grinding at origin which was earlier on viewed as an impetus to prop up demand, as producing countries engaged earnestly in value addition investments, has slowed down due to the lack of beans.
Regarding cocoa trade, global exports of cocoa beans and semi-finished cocoa products, measured in bean equivalent, reached 2.36 million tonnes during October to December 2023, representing a decrease of almost 6% compared to 2.5 million tonnes recorded during the same period in the previous season. The decline in trade activities may be a consequence of the supply tightness from top producing countries in West Africa.
A review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the January-March quarter of 2024 is also presented.
Summary of revised estimates
| Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) |
2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | Year-on-year change | ||
| Revised estimates |
Previous estimates a/ |
Revised estimates |
|||
| (thousand tonnes) | (Per cent) | ||||
| World gross production | 5 047 | 4 449 | 4 461 | – 586 | – 11.7% |
| World grindings | 5 073 | 4 779 | 4 855 | – 218 | – 4.3% |
| Surplus/deficit b/ | – 76 | – 374 | – 439 | ||
| End-of-season stocks | 1 767 | 1 395 | 1 328 | – 439 | – 24.8% |
| Stocks/Grindings ratio | 34.8% | 29.2% | 27.4% | ||
Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. L – No. 1 – Cocoa year 2023/24
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2020/21 to 2022/23 and quarterly statistics for the period April-June 2022 to October-December 2023. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.
Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.
Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org
