February 2025 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics
Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, 28 February 2025 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2024/25 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2023/24 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume LI – Cocoa year 2024/25 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2025.
The 2024/25 season is envisaged to be better than the 2023/24 season despite the challenges faced by producers which includes but not limited to weather conditions, diseases, pests, old tress etc. High cocoa prices which have prevailed for the past several years has incentivized farmers to put in more efforts and resources in cocoa farming despite the challenges they face. On the contrary, declines in demand are expected as high cost of raw materials for cocoa users seems to be causing reduced demand.
Compared to the 2023/24 season, global cocoa supply is anticipated to increase by almost 7.8% to 4.840 million tonnes. Global cocoa demand is projected to decrease by almost 4.8% to 4.650 million tonnes.
Summary of forecasts and revised estimates
Cocoa year (Oct-Sept) | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | Year-on-year change | ||
| Previous estimates a/ | Revised estimates | Forecasts | |||
| (thousand tonnes) | (Per cent) | ||||
| World gross production | 4 382 | 4 489 | 4 840 | + 351 | + 7.8% |
| World grindings | 4 816 | 4 885 | 4 650 | – 235 | – 4.8% |
| Surplus/deficit b/ | – 478 | – 441 | +142 | ||
| End-of-season stocks | 1 300 | 1 336 | 1 478 | + 142 | + 10.6% |
| Stocks/Grindings ratio | 27.0% | 27.3% | 31.8% | ||
Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. L – No. 4 – Cocoa year 2023/24
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for 1% loss in weight) minus grindings.
Totals may differ due to rounding.
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2021/22 to 2023/24 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2023 to July-September 2024. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.
Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.
Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org
