February 2016 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

London, 26 February 2016–The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2015/2016 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for 2014/2015, as summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume XLII – Cocoa year 2015/2016 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2016.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep)		 2014/2015 2015/2016 Year-on-year change
Previous estimates a/ Revised estimates Forecasts
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World production 4 201 4 230
 4 154
 – 76 – 1.8%
World grindings 4 123 4 146
 4 225 + 79 + 1.9%
Surplus/deficit b/  + 36  + 42
  – 113
End-of-season stocks 1 601 1 607 1 494
 – 113 – 7.6%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 38.8% 38.8% 35.4%

Notes:
a/   Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLI – No. 4 – Cocoa year 2014/2015
b/   Surplus/deficit: Net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.

This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s first forecasts for the 2015/2016 cocoa year, as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country. The main features of the global cocoa market are illustrated in colour charts. In addition, the Bulletinincludes comments on crop and demand prospects in the leading countries for the current season, and a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the October-December quarter of 2015.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2011/2012 to 2013/2014 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2013 to April-June 2015. Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade and consumption, by country and by region, for the period 2005/2006 to 2013/2014 are presented for reference.

 

 

Assessment of world cocoa bean stocks for 2014-15

London, 28 January 2016 — The ICCO Expert Working Group on Stocks (EWGS) met today, Thursday 28 January 2016, to review the level of world cocoa bean stocks. The EWGS is composed of experts in the cocoa field who meet once a year, at the invitation of the ICCO, to review and analyse the results of the ICCO’s annual survey of cocoa stocks held in warehouses worldwide. The survey is conducted every year since 2000 and aims to improve transparency in the cocoa market.

The result of the latest survey showed that world cocoa bean stocks rose to 1.505 million tonnes as at the end of the 2014/2015 cocoa year (30 September 2015), representing stock levels at 3,000 tonnes higher than the previous year. This result appeared to show a smaller supply surplus than the one published by the ICCO in November 2015 in its latest Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics (QBCS), estimated at 36,000 tonnes for the 2014/15 season.

 

Location of cocoa bean stocks 30 September
2014		 30 September
2015		 Difference
(year-on-year)
   (thousands of tonnes)
 (thousands oftonnes)  (thousands of tonnes)
STOCKS IN COCOA IMPORTING COUNTRIES 1,021 1,111  89
of which:      
Europe 677 763  86
Licensed US warehouse stocks                  254 244 -10
       
STOCKS IN COCOA PRODUCING COUNTRIES 413 316 -97
       
COCOA BEANS IN TRANSIT 68 78  11
       
TOTAL ESTIMATED 1,502 1,505   3
WORLD COCOA BEAN STOCKS (ICCO survey)   
       
Total world stocks (statistically-derived) QBCS 1,565 1,601  36

Totals and differences may differ due to rounding

 

The EWGS would like to note that caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the difference between the results of the survey and the statistically derived stocks.

The ICCO Secretariat maintains, so far, its supply surplus estimate of 36,000 tonnes for 2014/15 as published in its latestQBCS, and to be revised only in its next Bulletin due at the end of February 2016, taking into account the outcome of this survey.