Cocoa Market Report for November 2024

Abidjan, 12 December 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for November 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • As with simple economics whereby an increase in supply almost always leads to a fall in prices, it is generally observed that an increase in arrivals normally leads to bearish cocoa prices. But this was not the case in November as both arrivals and prices have concurrently increased.
  • As the season progresses, supply risks continue to be the focus of attention. The question that comes to mind is – is the cocoa supply enough to cater for both contracts rolled-over from last season in addition to the current season?
  • Other factors compounding the supply situation include exchange stock levels, weather and Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD).

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the following steps as they are just guidelines.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

November 2024 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

Abidjan, 29 November 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised estimates for the 2022/23 and 2023/24 cocoa years of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans, summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 4 – Volume L – Cocoa Year 2023/24 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of November 2024.

The commentary of this issue of the Bulletin points out that both the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons were affected by supply challenges and ended with a supply deficit. World production of cocoa beans for the 2023/24 season ended with a significant reduction as unconducive weather conditions, diseases and pests took a toll on the major producing countries in West Africa. At 4.382 million tonnes, global production of cocoa beans is now estimated to be 50,400 tonnes higher than the Secretariat’s earlier projection in the previous Bulletin.

Global grindings fared better than estimated in the previous Bulletin by 65,000 tonnes from 4.751 million tonnes to 4.816 million tonnes. Though, for the 2023/24 season, cocoa bean shortage and high cocoa prices slowed down processing activities, cocoa demand still outstripped supply.

Summary of revised estimates

 

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep)		 2022/2023 2023/2024 Year-on-year change
Revised
estimates		 Previous
estimates a/		 Revised
estimates
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World gross production 5 044 4 332 4 382 – 662 – 13.1%
World grindings 5 058 4 751 4 816 – 242 – 4.8%
Surplus/deficit b/ – 64 – 462 – 478
 
End-of-season stocks 1 778 1 324 1 300 – 478 – 26.8%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 35.2% 27.9% 27.0%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. L – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2023/24
b/  Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2020/21 to 2022/23 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2022 to April-June 2024. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org

Cocoa Market Report for October 2024

Abidjan, 13 November 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for Ocotber 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • The season has now kicked off and considering the flow of cocoa arrivals amid an increase in producer prices, one would generally expect to see a continuous year-on-year rise in cocoa flows. Bearing in mind that Côte d’Ivoire accounts for over 40% of global production, it goes without saying that arrivals data from the country are very consequential not only for the trade balance but also price movements.
  • Côte d’Ivoire’s cumulative arrivals during October see-sawed and consequently affected prices.
  • Periods of decreases in arrivals during the month may have been due to the slow pace of transportation of beans to the ports as heavy downpours during the month affected cocoa routes in Côte d’Ivoire. Furthermore, the situation was worsened by excess rainfall which hinders the proper fermentation and drying of beans, and consequently the quality of beans.
  • Depletion of exchange-certified stocks further heightened concerns about whether the market will be adequately supplied.
  • Prices may have also gained support from published grindings data during the month. With two of the three main regional associations posting positive grindings data, it raises the question whether the supply would be able to cater for the demand.
  • It is too early to provide concrete views on the season’s production as there are mixed sentiments regarding cocoa supply for the ongoing season.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the following steps as they are just guidelines.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

VACANCY NOTICE – ECONOMIST

Abidjan, 31 October 2024. Vacancy notice – Economist

Title: Economist

Category/ Grade: Internationally recruited staff, P1 on the UN salary scale

Duty station: Abidjan

Type of contract: Fixed Term (5 years with 6-month probationary period)

Deadline for application: 31/12/2024 (Midnight UTC Time)

Indicative starting date: 01/07/2025 (latest date when the selected candidate is expected to take up her/his position in Abidjan)

Applications (only CV & Covering letter) to be sent to recruitment@icco.org

VACANCY NOTICE FULL DESCRIPTION – ENGLISH

Cocoa Market Report for September 2024

Abidjan, 21 October 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for September 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • Cocoa prices made headlines during the 2023/24 cocoa year.
  • While some farmers enjoyed higher revenues, those who operated in regulated markets such as the the Ivorian Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) and the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) were unable to do so, as farm gate prices were fixed for the entire season.
  • One should note that these institutions regulate their domestic market system with a self-financing price stabilisation policy, i.e., at no cost to the taxpayers, whose objectives are:
    • to protect farmers from intra-season price volatility (i.e. establish a fixed farm gate price); and
    • to give farmers a fair share of the price that buyers will pay to source beans from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana (i.e. enforce the fixed farm gate price).

The September 2024 report retraces the steps used by the CCC and the COCOBOD to determine the fixed farm gate prices for the 2024/25 season.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the following steps as they are just guidelines.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

Cocoa Market Report for August 2024

Abidjan, 18 September 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for August 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • In August, it appeared the cocoa market entered a new phase characterized by “relatively low” cocoa prices. At the end of August, the monthly average cocoa price in London represented a six-month low at US$8,047 per tonne, while in New York, it was a one-month low at US$8,992 per tonne. These prices can be interpreted as ‘relatively low’ as they are about 133% and 163% above the average price recorded for August 2023 in London and in New York, respectively.
  • Reports of conducive weather conditions, which is expected to bolster the 2024/25 main crop especially across the West African cocoa belt, were the main factor that provided the relief in prices.
  • However, with the market still in backwardation, can we anticipate further price declines and improved availability of supplies? There has been a postponement of bean delivery from the current season to the 2024/25 season. Would upcoming supplies be enough to immediately satisfy the market?

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

110th International Cocoa Council and Subsidiary Bodies, 23 – 26 September 2024, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire / Hybrid

Abidjan, 17 September 2024 – The International Cocoa Council and subsidiary bodies, including the Consultative Board on the World Cocoa Economy and the Economics and Administration and Finance Committees, will meet from 23 to 26 September, 2024.

This information is restricted to ICCO Members. Please go to Member area for more information.

Timetable of Meetings, 23 – 26 September 2024, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire / Hybrid

MEETING
48th Consultative Board  (Monday, 23 September)

11:00 – 16:00 UTC
Opening of the 110th International Cocoa Council and 23th Economics Committee (Tuesday, 24 September)

11:00 – 16:00 UTC
 26th Administration and Finance Committee* and 110th International Cocoa Council (Wednesday, 25 September)

11:00 – 16:00 UTC
110th International Cocoa Council (Thursday, 26 September)

11:00 – 16:00 UTC
* = It is respectfully noted that the meetings of the Administration and Finance Committee are open to ICCO Member countries only.

 

August 2024 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

Abidjan, 31 August 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the 2023/24 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2022/23 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 3 – Volume L – cocoa year 2023/24 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of August 2024.

Global supply remains low and the Bulletin outlines factors including adverse weather conditions, aged trees, pests and diseases that affected production in major cocoa growing areas during the season under review.

Taking into account available trade data and published grindings data, cocoa demand outstripped global supply.

Considering the market balance, a production deficit of 462,000 tonnes is forecast for the 2023/24 season. Total end-of-season stocks are envisaged at 1.324 million tonnes. This results in a 45-year low stocks-to-grindings ratio of 27.9%.

Though prices have recently experienced a descent from their historic rallies, they remain relatively high as the supply constraints persist. A review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the April-June quarter of 2024 is also presented.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep)		 2022/2023 2023/2024 Year-on-year change
Revised
estimates		 Previous
forecasts a/		 Revised
forecasts
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World gross production 5 050 4 461 4 332 – 718 – 14.2%
World grindings 5 057 4 855 4 751 – 306 – 6.0%
Surplus/deficit b/ – 57 – 439 – 462
 
End-of-season stocks 1 786 1 328 1 324 – 462 – 26.1%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 35.3% 27.4% 27.9%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. L – No. 2 – Cocoa year 2023/24
b/  Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers crop year data from 2020/21 to 2022/23 and quarterly statistics for the period July-September 2022 to January-March 2024. Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org

Terms of Reference – Auditing firm – Extended deadline

The Executive Director presents his compliments to all Members and is pleased to announce that the submission date for the Call for Proposals for the appointment of an auditing firm to audit the accounts for the financial year ending 30 September 2025 has been extended. All relevant information, including the Terms of Reference and submission guidelines, is available on the ICCO website.

Proposals must be submitted no later than 15 November 2024, at 16:00 UTC.

20240902 TOR -English-Tender audit 2025

0290902 CLARIFICATION ON HOW TO SUBMIT YOUR OFFER English Tender 2025

20240902 TDR-French-Tender audit 2025

20240902 PRECISIONS RELATIVES A LA SOUMISSION DES OFFRES AUDIT 2025 – FRENCH

Cocoa Market Report for July 2024

Abidjan, 16 August 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for July 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • As the market enters the last quarter of the season, focus is on the developments of the forward prices for the mid-crop of the 2023/24 season: the JUL-24 and SEPT-24 contracts.
  • Based on the JULY-24 contract, cocoa futures initiated an upward trend in prices during the first week of July. Compared to prices on the first trading day, prices rose by 5% from US$9,352 per tonne to US$9,823 per tonne in London and by 4% from US$7,500 per tonne to US$7,811 per tonne in New York. Issues of supply tightness and stock declines supported the price increase. A year ago, prices were not as high as they currently are.
  • However, reports of improved weather conditions in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana led prices to slip to US$9,143 per tonne and US$7,720 per tonne in London and New York, respectively.
  • The dip was short-lived, and prices reversed in a volatile manner as high margin calls led traders to reduce their positions. At the time, open interest was reported to be near their lowest level since 2010. In addition, stronger-than-expected second quarter grindings data from Europe also supported the upward momentum in prices.
  • From mid-July, the nearby contract shifted to the SEPT-24 contract. Prices remained high and volatile and ranged between US$8,131 per tonne and US$8,832 per tonne in London and in United States between US$7,660 per tonne and US$8,276 per tonne. The extent of the disappointing Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana crops, uncertainties surrounding demand and early predictions of a better crop outlook from top producing countries for the 2024/25 season contributed to the volatile price movements.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.