Cocoa Market Report for January 2025

Abidjan, 17 February 2025 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for January 2025. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • Cocoa prices in January continued to remain liable to rapid changes due to challenges facing the cocoa market. Weather during the month were reported to be less conducive for the development of the mid-crop in Côte d’Ivoire and supported prices.
  • By mid-January, it was observed that a turning point in cocoa demand may have started as the major regional cocoa associations in Europe, North America and Asia reported a decline in their quarterly cocoa grindings data. It is worth pointing out that data published by the European Cocoa Association (ECA) and Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) for the quarter Q4-2024, were at their lowest levels since 2020 – which was during the era of COVID-19. It is also likely that the high cocoa prices may have pressured manufacturers and led to a reduction in the amount of cocoa processed.
  • High prices have also raised a few financial issues:
    • (i) the increased capital needed to buy, stock and trade beans;
    • (ii) the increased price risk exposure; and (iii) the demand for higher margins in futures hedges.
  • However, recent statistics indicate that worldwide, the average unit price of chocolate confectionery products has increased. Rising production costs (cocoa, energy, sugar) are the main causes. This resulted in a global decrease in consumption volume. But the decrease was less than proportional to the price rise, so the overall final consumer expenditure augmented.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the following steps as they are just guidelines.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

Join Us at MICF 2025: Embracing Cocoa Challenges for Sustainable Excellence

Abidjan, 31 January 2025 – The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) is pleased to announce its participation in the Malaysian International Cocoa Fair (MICF) 2025, organized by the Malaysian Cocoa Board. The conference will take place from May 24 to 27, 2025, at the Sabah International Convention Centre (SICC), Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. This prestigious event will bring together key players in the cocoa industry, including producers, researchers, policymakers, and industry experts from around the globe.

Event Details:

  • Date: May 24-27, 2025
  • Venue: Sabah International Convention Centre (SICC), Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
  • Theme: Embracing Cocoa Challenges for Sustainable Excellence

Conference Highlights: The MICF 2025 will feature a comprehensive program designed to address the pressing challenges and opportunities within the cocoa industry in Asia. Key highlights include:

  • Opening Ceremony: Featuring a keynote address by YB Datuk Seri Johari bin Abdul Ghani, Minister of Plantation and Commodities.
  • World Cocoa Scenario Session: Presented by Mr. Michel Arrion, Executive Director of the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).
  • Plenary Lectures and Expert Panels: Discussions on topics such as cocoa traceability, price trajectories, and the future of the cocoa industry in Asia.
  • Networking Opportunities: Including a VVIP tour, exhibition visits, and a networking lunch to foster collaboration and knowledge sharing among attendees.
  • Concurrent Sessions: Covering a range of topics from high-yield opportunities in cocoa plantations to innovations in cocoa and chocolate production.

Special Events:

  • Malaysian International Cocoa Dinner: An evening of cultural performances and networking on May 26, 2025.
  • Poster and Exhibition Visits: Showcasing the latest research and innovations in the cocoa industry.

MICC 2025 aims to drive forward-thinking solutions for the future of cocoa production, processing, and trade. Attendees will gain insights into the latest market trends, sustainable practices, and technological advancements. The conference will also provide a platform for meaningful collaboration and networking, helping to strengthen the global cocoa community.

For more information and to register for the event, please visit MICF 2025.

World cocoa bean stocks for the 2023/24 season

 

 

London, 23 January 2025. The ICCO Expert Working Group on Stocks (EWG-S) met today, Thursday 23 January 2025 to review the level of world cocoa bean stocks. The EWG-S is composed of experts in the cocoa field who meet once a year, at the invitation of the ICCO, to review and analyse the results of the ICCO’s annual survey of cocoa bean stocks held in European warehouses as well as assess the level of global cocoa bean stocks. The survey is conducted every year and aims to improve transparency in the cocoa market.

LOCATION OF THE ESTIMATED AND IDENTIFIED COCOA BEAN STOCKS
(THOUSAND TONNES)		 30 SEPTEMBER 2022 30 SEPTEMBER 2023 30 SEPTEMBER 2024
Stocks in cocoa importing countries 1,192 1,102 639
Stocks in cocoa exporting countries 201a 123a 111b
Stocks in South-East Asia 223 223c 112d
Manufacturers’ stocks 90 97 96
Cocoa beans in transit 73 71 82
Minimum estimated world cocoa bean stocks 1,778 1,616 1,041
Minimum estimated world stocks as a percentage of statistically-derived stocks 97% 91% 80%
ICCO statistically-derived stockse 1,842 1,778 1,300

Notes: Totals may differ from the sum of constituents due to rounding.
a/ Seven producing countries provided data.
b/ Three producing countries provided data.
c/ The EWG-S estimated the stocks data for 30 September 2023 for Southeast Asia.
d/ Data for September 2024 is reported by the Cocoa Association of Asia, but not all those invited to participate in the survey provided data.
e/ Published in the ICCO Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Volume L, No. 4, Cocoa Year 2023/24.

While the ICCO Secretariat maintains, so far, its supply deficit estimate of 478,000 tonnes for 2023/24 as published in its latest QBCS, it may revise that figure in its next Bulletin due at the end of February 2025, taking into account the outcome of this survey.

For more information, please contact Carlos Follana, Marketing and Communication Coordinator, International Cocoa Organization, ICCO Building, II Plateaux ENA – Avenue Boga Doudou, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire; Tel: +225 27 22 51 49 50/51 | Fax: +225 27 22 51 49 79 | E-mail: Carlos.Follana@icco.org

 

Cocoa Market Report for December 2024

Abidjan, 20 January 2025 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for December 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • Cocoa futures finished December 2024 on a strong increase with the nearby contract for the last trading day of the year at US$11,441 per tonne and US$11,545 per tonne in London and New York respectively. Weather conditions including hot temperatures, La Nina and harmattan in major cocoa producing countries could have a negative toll on the 2024/25 global supplies of cocoa beans. Consequently, prices have remained high.
  • Published regional cocoa associations grindings data for the Q4.2024 quarter were lower year-on-year – an indicator that cocoa demand is plummeting. The significant rise in cocoa prices will inevitably affect demand. Until current market fundamentals show signs of improving production, cocoa prices may continue to be high. However, should demand continue its downtrend, then the market may head towards an equilibrium.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the following steps as they are just guidelines.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

Cocoa Market Report for November 2024

Abidjan, 12 December 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for November 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • As with simple economics whereby an increase in supply almost always leads to a fall in prices, it is generally observed that an increase in arrivals normally leads to bearish cocoa prices. But this was not the case in November as both arrivals and prices have concurrently increased.
  • As the season progresses, supply risks continue to be the focus of attention. The question that comes to mind is – is the cocoa supply enough to cater for both contracts rolled-over from last season in addition to the current season?
  • Other factors compounding the supply situation include exchange stock levels, weather and Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD).

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the following steps as they are just guidelines.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

November 2024 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

Abidjan, 29 November 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised estimates for the 2022/23 and 2023/24 cocoa years of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans, summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 4 – Volume L – Cocoa Year 2023/24 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of November 2024.

The commentary of this issue of the Bulletin points out that both the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons were affected by supply challenges and ended with a supply deficit. World production of cocoa beans for the 2023/24 season ended with a significant reduction as unconducive weather conditions, diseases and pests took a toll on the major producing countries in West Africa. At 4.382 million tonnes, global production of cocoa beans is now estimated to be 50,400 tonnes higher than the Secretariat’s earlier projection in the previous Bulletin.

Global grindings fared better than estimated in the previous Bulletin by 65,000 tonnes from 4.751 million tonnes to 4.816 million tonnes. Though, for the 2023/24 season, cocoa bean shortage and high cocoa prices slowed down processing activities, cocoa demand still outstripped supply.

Summary of revised estimates

 

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep)		 2022/2023 2023/2024 Year-on-year change
Revised
estimates		 Previous
estimates a/		 Revised
estimates
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World gross production 5 044 4 332 4 382 – 662 – 13.1%
World grindings 5 058 4 751 4 816 – 242 – 4.8%
Surplus/deficit b/ – 64 – 462 – 478
 
End-of-season stocks 1 778 1 324 1 300 – 478 – 26.8%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 35.2% 27.9% 27.0%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. L – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2023/24
b/  Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2020/21 to 2022/23 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2022 to April-June 2024. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org

Cocoa Market Report for October 2024

Abidjan, 13 November 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for Ocotber 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • The season has now kicked off and considering the flow of cocoa arrivals amid an increase in producer prices, one would generally expect to see a continuous year-on-year rise in cocoa flows. Bearing in mind that Côte d’Ivoire accounts for over 40% of global production, it goes without saying that arrivals data from the country are very consequential not only for the trade balance but also price movements.
  • Côte d’Ivoire’s cumulative arrivals during October see-sawed and consequently affected prices.
  • Periods of decreases in arrivals during the month may have been due to the slow pace of transportation of beans to the ports as heavy downpours during the month affected cocoa routes in Côte d’Ivoire. Furthermore, the situation was worsened by excess rainfall which hinders the proper fermentation and drying of beans, and consequently the quality of beans.
  • Depletion of exchange-certified stocks further heightened concerns about whether the market will be adequately supplied.
  • Prices may have also gained support from published grindings data during the month. With two of the three main regional associations posting positive grindings data, it raises the question whether the supply would be able to cater for the demand.
  • It is too early to provide concrete views on the season’s production as there are mixed sentiments regarding cocoa supply for the ongoing season.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the following steps as they are just guidelines.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

VACANCY NOTICE – ECONOMIST

Abidjan, 31 October 2024. Vacancy notice – Economist

Title: Economist

Category/ Grade: Internationally recruited staff, P1 on the UN salary scale

Duty station: Abidjan

Type of contract: Fixed Term (5 years with 6-month probationary period)

Deadline for application: 31/12/2024 (Midnight UTC Time)

Indicative starting date: 01/07/2025 (latest date when the selected candidate is expected to take up her/his position in Abidjan)

Applications (only CV & Covering letter) to be sent to recruitment@icco.org

VACANCY NOTICE FULL DESCRIPTION – ENGLISH

Cocoa Market Report for September 2024

Abidjan, 21 October 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for September 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • Cocoa prices made headlines during the 2023/24 cocoa year.
  • While some farmers enjoyed higher revenues, those who operated in regulated markets such as the the Ivorian Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) and the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) were unable to do so, as farm gate prices were fixed for the entire season.
  • One should note that these institutions regulate their domestic market system with a self-financing price stabilisation policy, i.e., at no cost to the taxpayers, whose objectives are:
    • to protect farmers from intra-season price volatility (i.e. establish a fixed farm gate price); and
    • to give farmers a fair share of the price that buyers will pay to source beans from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana (i.e. enforce the fixed farm gate price).

The September 2024 report retraces the steps used by the CCC and the COCOBOD to determine the fixed farm gate prices for the 2024/25 season.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the following steps as they are just guidelines.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

Cocoa Market Report for August 2024

Abidjan, 18 September 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for August 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • In August, it appeared the cocoa market entered a new phase characterized by “relatively low” cocoa prices. At the end of August, the monthly average cocoa price in London represented a six-month low at US$8,047 per tonne, while in New York, it was a one-month low at US$8,992 per tonne. These prices can be interpreted as ‘relatively low’ as they are about 133% and 163% above the average price recorded for August 2023 in London and in New York, respectively.
  • Reports of conducive weather conditions, which is expected to bolster the 2024/25 main crop especially across the West African cocoa belt, were the main factor that provided the relief in prices.
  • However, with the market still in backwardation, can we anticipate further price declines and improved availability of supplies? There has been a postponement of bean delivery from the current season to the 2024/25 season. Would upcoming supplies be enough to immediately satisfy the market?

You can download the complete report by clicking here.